The 2000 Wizards survey was 2-6 million gamers. I went with the lower.
The number is irrelevant - percentages are relevant. They used the percentage to compare it to US residents between the ages of 10 and 35 in 2000. There are more people in the US and there are a lot more people outside the 12-35 range who play wargames and RPGs. However WotC doesn't care about the customers who are older than 35 - it isn't their target audience.
The general percentage should hold true in a larger population sample with similar values and principles (most of the EU, Canada and Australia). Extending it out to include the older population might be a stretch - but I don't think it is really much of a stretch. The D&D is almost as old as the cut-off that Wizards uses in there surveys - and wargames have a much older tradition.
Scott Rouse quote gives 6 million players as slightly inflated. Also notes that a large number of those are essentially "non-paying" customers, or by my parlance not lifestyle gamers and not likely to assemble a mini collection.
"D&D had about six million players worldwide last year, according to a survey by Wizards, though Rouse said the figure may be somewhat inflated."
Not sure what you might know about that survey...but it wasn't a survey. It was the total sales numbers for the D&D 3.x PHBs. The reason they called it as may be slightly inflated - was that it included sales of both the D&D 3 and 3.5 PHBs, and some people might have purchased both books. However you also have players who don't buy any of the books at all. It isn't really an accurate source of market data like the survey they performed in 2000. It also doesn't include any other game system or older versions of D&D.
35 years at under $30 million per year plus miniature sales.
"It's big business: by one estimate, some 20 million people have played Dungeons & Dragons, and the books and related materials have racked up $1 billion in sales."
Dungeons and Dragons - not RPGs, not Wargames...just Dungeons and Dragons. While it is the most popular RPG - it is not the only one by any means.
24,000,000 gamers spending an average of $1.25 each per year?
No - not what the article says. The sales numbers which are mentioned by Pramas are based on the Gaming Reports numbers. They divide miniature sales, RPGs and CCGs into seperate groups of the hobby game industry. Miniature sales generally account for 3 to 4 times the sales of strictly RPG products (the books) depending on the year. In the article I link to below, they pegged the North American miniature market at $200 million - NORTH AMERICA. Of the RPG market, WotC had about 43% of that market in North America...but with the 6 million some odd number that they toss around that means there are a lot of other gamers which are not accounted for by any number which is based on D&D sales or WotC hype.
State of the Industry 2004: Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up To Me
Not a lot for a 24,000,000 TTRPGer population.
Ummm...what? D&D, wargames and miniatures has never done much advertising. Advertising doesn't effect the number of gamers...and by the way, D&D isn't the only game in town.
Recent circulation for Dungeon flunctuated between 23,000 and 48,000. Dragon Magazine has had circulation between 31,000 and 68,000 this decade.
The invested RPG miniature gamer number was pegged to this at 60,000.
I don't get it? What method do you use to make your conclusions? What effect does Dragon magazine have on miniature sales? Are they related at all? Not really.
According to the survey linked to below (only public one which I am aware of)...using only the numbers which they provide and not extrapolating to the general population (only dealing with their target audience). There were 2.25 million monthly players of which half used miniatures. Are monthly gamers who use miniatures not invested? I canceled my subscription for Dragon once it became an advertisement for WotC - I am sure I am not the only one. Again though, people who are not interested in D&D 3.x would have little interest in the current Dragon or Dungeon magazines (while they still existed).
I think the 3% of the population number is suspect. What is the public reference on that?
Adventure Game Industry Market Research Summary (RPGs) V1.0
...A two phase approach was used to determine information about trading card games (TCGs), role playing games (RPGs) and miniatures wargames (MWG) in the general US population between the ages of 12 and 35...
The study provides the following information about the basic demographics of the tabletop RPG marketplace:
Size: 6% play or have played TRPGs (~ 5.5 million people)
3% play monthly (~ 2.25 million people)
Crossover: 17% of the total play MWGs monthly
The study provides the following information about the basic demographics of the MWG marketplace:
Size: 4% play or have played MWGs (~3.7 million people)
2% play monthly (~1.8 million people)
That is what I use to provide the monthly RPG numbers, the monthly wargaming numbers and to account for the crossover between the two groups. The numbers which are given behind the percentage do not take into account anyone over the age of 35 or anyone outside of the US. They are not WotC target audience. However the percentages do tend to follow across and outside of the target group for WotC.
Now even if we were to cut my general population in half to focus in on the 12-35 demographic - you would still end up with half a billion miniatures in play and 12,410,000 gamers using them. In terms of sales figures - I don't think it is unreasonable to assume that the rest of the world buys as many miniatures as North America does (there are 4.5 billion potential customers after all...).